How Much Trouble Are the Edmonton Oilers Actually In?
May 27th, 2021
After being swept in the first round at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets, a lot is being said about Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. Rightfully so, but at the same time, expectations need to be tempered for the time being. First and foremost, hockey is a team sport. No matter who you have on the team, individualistic stats and awards don’t hold any merit if your team as a whole has several glaring holes. The Edmonton Oilers are a 2 horse-team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. After those 2, the talent drops dramatically. In terms of playoff teams and contenders, their depth cannot match any of them. If you can somehow stop or even slow down Mcdavid, you’re more or less going to get a win. A lot needs to be done before they can actually compete.
The Edmonton Oilers will always have Stanley Cup aspirations as long as they are employing McDavid and Draisaitl. They are the most dangerous duo in the NHL and it isn’t even close. McDavid finished the year with 105 points and Draisaitl was right behind him with 84, still 15 points more than third place Brad Marchand. Leon Draisaitl gets a lot of flack for piggy-backing McDavid but he can produce on a line of his own and he has shown that when given the opportunity. The depth is so bad in Edmonton that when they have to go “god mode”, they have no choice but to put them together.
The issues come after those two. In terms of their forwards, only one other player (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) had more than 30 points this year. It goes from 105 for McDavid, 85 for Draisaitl, and then 35 for Nugent-Hopkins. Only 2 more players hit 20 points this season in Jesse Puljujarvi with 25 and Kailer Yamamoto with 21. It was never a secret either, everyone knew about their lack of depth but they still had high aspirations and part of that was because of their division.
The newly formed North Division had the Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators. Right off the bat, the Oilers are the second or third best team in the division. Playing teams like Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa 9–10 times, who struggled mightily all year, padded their confidence and their stats. Even if the division remained the same, they would have had the California teams who are all rebuilding, the Coyotes who struggled, and the contending Vegas Golden Knights. A good regular season could bode well for the playoffs but playoff hockey is a lot different and the competition is very stiff.
Connor McDavid seems to be an antagonizing topic of conversation for NHL referees. Some will call ticky-tacky penalties because he’s so elusive and fast, while others will let him get mauled, held, hooked, and double teamed. During the playoffs, the whistles tend to be used a lot less and we witnessed that several times. Mcdavid was being double teamed and interfered with but no call was made. This is important because if McDavid is getting stopped legally or illegally, the goals won’t be coming for the Oilers.
The Oilers only managed 8 goals, 3 of them came from Mcdavid and Draisaitl. They also had 4 points and 5 points, respectively. Puljujarvi, Larsson, Nugent-Hopkins, and Kassian each had 2. That is not good enough in the playoffs and you can’t actually expect them to go far with a lack of secondary scoring. Changes need to be made and general manager Ken Holland has already hinted towards that.
The Edmonton Oilers have forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Alex Chiasson, and Tyler Ennis as upcoming UFAs. Kailer Yamamoto and Jujhar Khaira are pending RFAs. They also have Adam Larsson, Tyson Barrie and Mike Smith as their most important UFAs to deal with after the forwards. According to CapFriendly, they have 59 million divvied up between 17 players with 22 million in projected cap space. There will be a few extra dollars freed up with 2 potential buyouts as well. So they have a few dollars to play with but they have to be careful how they spend it, especially with Nugent-Hopkins and Barrie.
Tyson Barrie signed a one year deal and took a little less money to sign with the Oilers after his disastrous year with the Maple Leafs. He had a phenomenal offensive year tallying 48 points in 56 games. A lot was said about his play, especially because half his points came off the man-advantage playing alongside McDavid and Draisaitl. Losing him to free agency would be a big pill to swallow but they also have to be wary about overpaying for an offensive defenseman. They have Oscar Klefbom returning next year, alongside Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell, and Ethan Bear. Re-signing Adam Larsson to a similar deal he came off of wouldn’t be the worst idea but maybe they can also let young prospects like Evan Bouchard blossom in bigger roles as well. If they don’t believe in their prospects, they might be forced into signing Barrie on his demands.
In regards to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he’s a good hockey player, but he still hasn’t proven his worth as a first overall pick. He’s had many years to develop and become a number one center but it hasn’t really come to fruition. He’s served very well as a second line center behind McDavid, playing a more 200 foot game. He’s even shown some ability to score as a winger on the top line. He had back to back 60+ point years before coming into this season.
But in saying that, his asking price is going to be very high. It was already rumoured earlier in the season that he wanted upwards of 8 million dollars. With the Oilers a little tight for cap, I don’t think it would be wise to pay that much for his services. The glaring issue with that argument is that if he does walk, there’s going to a vacancy in their top 6 with very few options to replace him through free agency. So this could become a game of who cracks first, between management and player.
People need to realize that even though McDavid is a generational talent and he makes any team 100x better, he needs to be surrounded by a decent supporting cast. Draisaitl needs help as well and it would bode well if they can manage to potentially split the two and find suitable wingers for each of them. Puljujarvi showed great chemistry with Mcdavid in the second half and Yamamoto has shown he has the capabilities to play in top 6, but the Oilers need more.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a good example, where they knew they had a championship window and they did everything possible to give Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as much help as they could give them, under the parameters of the salary cap. Some of the moves they made were a little questionable but the role players they added, whether during free agency or at the trade deadline, were key on their way to back to back Stanley Cup runs.
Mcdavid is still very young and he has a lot of hockey ahead of him. However, the Oilers were left in a precarious position when Chiarelli was let go. A lot of bad contracts were signed, questionable trades were made, and most are still on the books right now. Ken Holland needs to do his best this summer to maneuver his way out of that mess and find the right supporting pieces for the Edmonton Oilers.
Their window will always be open with McDavid and Draisaitl but hockey isn’t like basketball, where sometimes all you need is 2 superstars. You can get away with a questionable supporting cast in basketball but it’s a completely different story in hockey. You need to use your secondary and tertiary lines a lot more in hockey than you do in other sports. Playoff teams will find your weaknesses and exploit them time and time again, until you’re packing your bags and going back home for the summer.
The Oilers learned that the hard way and they must use this off-season to better prepare themselves for the future. Use the Penguins playbook as a guide. They might’ve shipped off picks and prospects time and time again but it landed them in the playoffs every year and got them 2 Stanley Cups. They did everything they could to build the best team possible with Crosby and Malkin and the Oilers have to follow suit.
